Predictive shelf-life modelling for value-added indigenous foods
How mathematical modelling is helping Ugandan SMEs extend the shelf life of traditional foods without preservatives.
Value-added indigenous foods sit at the intersection of cultural heritage and commercial opportunity. Yet for the small and medium agro-processors driving this market in Uganda, one question dominates every product launch: how long will it stay safe and acceptable on a shop shelf?
The modelling approach
Our team combined accelerated storage trials with Arrhenius-based kinetic models to predict quality decay across a range of temperatures and packaging formats. The result is a lightweight decision tool that agro-processors can use without a laboratory of their own.
Across twelve product lines — from millet-based porridges to fermented cassava snacks — the model predicted end-of-shelf-life within a 7% margin of laboratory observation.
What it means for SMEs
For a processor deciding between two packaging films, or evaluating whether to invest in cold storage, the model translates directly into weeks of additional market life and thousands of shillings in reduced write-offs.